🔗 Share this article

During the 2016 US presidential election campaign, Viktor Orbán emerged as the only head of an EU nation to back Donald Trump. This backing came as no shock, given the Hungarian leader's adoption of controversial ideas like population replacement concept and his crackdowns on media freedom. Commentators have noted that Mr Orbán essentially laid the groundwork for the Maga movement, with ex-Trump adviser Steve Bannon hailing him as Trump's forerunner.

Political Favors Ahead of Hungary's Polls

Recently, with pivotal polls in Hungary only half a year off, the American leader returned some political favors. As Mr Orbán seeks a fifth term in office presiding over a nation he calls an illiberal democracy, his Fidesz party lags in opinion polls. An official trip to Washington produced beyond Trump campaign souvenirs; it brought considerably more valuable pre-election gifts.

Waivers and Financial Shields

Although earlier instructing EU countries on the need to halt all fuel purchases from Russia, and warning of restrictions against nations continuing to purchase Russian crude, Mr Trump agreed to grant a unique waiver for Hungary – the top consumer among EU members of Russian crude. According to Mr Orbán, the American leadership also promised to extend a economic protection to Hungary's capital should it runs into any upcoming challenges, given that EU institutions continues to withhold large sums from the EU to the nation on grounds of rule-of-law breaches.

The particulars of this deal remain vague. But the US president recently demonstrated his inclination to support political friends when the US granted a $20 billion in emergency funds to Argentina’s far-right president, Javier Milei. Although Orbán was unable to arrange a presidential tour to Budapest, the Washington talks still turned out to be a successful endeavor.

European Apprehensions and International Implications

In the corridors of the EU, the US president's move probably highlighted the geopolitical stakes of the coming election, ahead of which the moderate contender, Péter Magyar, holds a comfortable lead in the polls. EU chiefs are accustomed not to anticipate steady principles from the Trump administration, and are familiar with the Trump's attempts to undermine the EU. But the waiver for Hungary – secured through an agreement to buy American natural gas and nuclear power – blatantly weakens EU aspirations to phase out imports of Russian energy by the target date.

• From 2022 onward, the top importers in the EU of Russian oil, these two countries, have funneled well over £10bn to the Kremlin’s war effort.
• Simultaneously, Budapest has often employed the threat of its veto to impede moves in Ukraine's bid to join the EU.
• While Europe works to forge a unified and effective strategy for aiding the Ukrainian government, and strengthening its hand in any future peace negotiations, Mr Orbán’s Putin-friendly presence at the international forums continues to be a major hurdle.

Rival's Approach

Péter Magyar has steered clear of pledging a significant change on the Ukraine conflict, and focused his campaigning on internal matters, while emphasizing the need for the country to start acting as a positive member state. Following repeated disruptions, EU officials can only hold out hope. Mr Orbán’s indifference to fundamental European principles, including the protection of minority groups and the independence of civil society institutions, has long been a deeply troubling issue for the bloc. His ongoing blocking tactics on Ukrainian matters risks undermining its long-term safety.